Risk disclosure

What Chamiko is

Chamiko is a software tool. It reads Kalshi’s 15-minute crypto markets with automated models and publishes what those models conclude — a side, a quality grade, a cushion measurement, and an entry price. That is information, not a recommendation, not advice, and not an instruction to trade.

We are not a broker, not an exchange, not a registered investment adviser, and not a commodity trading advisor. We are not affiliated with Kalshi. Every trade you place is your own decision, made on your own account, at your own risk.

Past results do not predict future results

We publish our track record because hiding it would be worse. But a win rate measured over past markets tells you what already happened — it is not a forecast, not a guarantee, and not a promise of any future return. Markets change. Models that worked can stop working, sometimes abruptly.

Some of our published numbers are shadow-validated, meaning the model made the call on the record but no money was placed on it. We label those wherever they appear. Shadow results can look better than live trading does, because live trading adds costs, delays, and prices that move while you act.

The specific risks of 15-minute markets

• They settle fast. A 15-minute market can move against you and settle before you can react. There is often no time to change your mind.
• They are close to a coin flip. Short-window crypto direction is extremely hard to predict. Any real edge is thin, and thin edges disappear in bad conditions.
• Contracts settle at all or nothing. A losing contract goes to zero. You lose the entire amount you paid for it.
• Prices move while you act. The entry price we publish may be gone by the time your order reaches the exchange. Paying more than the entry price removes the edge.
• Losses compound quickly. Many small windows a day means many chances to lose. Volume magnifies both outcomes.
• Fees and spreads matter. Exchange fees and the gap between bid and ask reduce what you keep, and are not always reflected in a headline win rate.

Technology can fail

Chamiko depends on price feeds, internet connections, third-party APIs, and our own servers. Any of these can be delayed, wrong, or unavailable. A call may arrive late, not arrive at all, or be based on stale data. We do not guarantee uptime, delivery, accuracy, or timeliness, and we are not liable for trades affected by any failure.

Automated trading (when it launches)

Automated trading is not yet available. When it launches, it will place orders on your Kalshi account inside limits you set. Automation does not reduce market risk — it removes the pause where a human might have stopped. A bug, an outage, or a bad run can produce losses faster than manual trading would. You remain fully responsible for every order placed on your account, and you should set conservative limits and monitor them.

Only risk what you can lose

Do not trade borrowed money, rent, tuition, or savings you need. If you find yourself chasing losses, trading more than you planned, or hiding your trading from people close to you, stop and get help. In the US, the National Problem Gambling Helpline is 1-800-522-4700, available 24/7.

Your responsibility

You are responsible for knowing whether event-contract trading is legal where you live, for meeting Kalshi’s own eligibility rules, and for your own taxes. By using Chamiko you confirm you understand and accept the risks described on this page.